2394 Preseason Power Rankings — projections, offense/defense grades, and the Central's third straight year as the meat grinder
By "USAFL Analytics Desk — preseason, 2393"

Pre-Season 2394 (Washington, DC) - # THE MODEL SPEAKS: Baltimore's Turn, Pittsburgh's Paradox, and Life After the Basement

### 2394 Preseason Power Rankings — projections, offense/defense grades, and the Central's third straight year as the meat grinder

*USAFL Analytics Desk — preseason, 2394*

Credentials first: the Model is coming off its best season on record — an average miss of barely a game — highlighted by the call nobody in the desert wanted to hear: the defending champs, projected 7-7, missed the playoffs entirely. So when it hands the 2394 crown-favorite title to a franchise that has never held it, maybe don't laugh this time.

**Baltimore opens as the favorite at a projected 12-2**, owners of the league's No. 1 defense for the second straight year and a Heavy offense that finally grades top-3. And because the scheduling gods have a sense of humor, the No. 2 team in the whole league — Cincinnati and its No. 1 offense — lives in the same division. For the third consecutive year, somebody in the Central is winning 10+ games and staying home in January.

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## The Rankings

**1. Baltimore (proj. 12-2) — Off: 3rd | Def: 1st**
The league's best defense (87.7 — top unit grade anywhere), its best linebackers, and a ground game that fits the Heavy like it was tailored. The Model's first-ever Baltimore favorite since the 2385 title team. The resume gap is January; the roster gap no longer exists.

**2. Cincinnati (proj. 11-3) — Off: 1st | Def: 4th**
Best offense in football for the second straight year, and last year's near-miss (10-4, semifinal exit) reads as prologue, not ceiling. The wildcard-or-division coin flip with Baltimore will decide half the playoff bracket.

**3. Los Angeles (proj. 11-3) — Off: 7th | Def: 3rd**
The league's most patient contender got impatient: LA scrapped its front for the league's only **4-6 defense** — a scheme so rare it's appeared eight times in 44 recorded seasons. A top-3 defense chasing the title that keeps slipping away, now with extra linebackers.

**4. Buffalo (proj. 10-4) — Off: 2nd | Def: 5th**
The champs. Five titles in seven years, the No. 2 offense, and the Model's respect — fourth place here is about the grades aging at the edges, not doubt. Counting Buffalo out has been the league's most reliable way to look foolish.

**5. Pittsburgh (proj. 10-4) — Off: 12th | Def: 2nd**
The paradox: the league's No. 2 defense bolted to a **dead-last offense**. The Model still says 10 wins because the defense is that good and the West Coast scheme hides the erosion — but this is the roster shape that falls off cliffs without warning.

**6. New Orleans (proj. 7-7) — Off: 8th | Def: 6th**
Joel Moore's front is coming along, the eternal all-TE receiving corps endures, and mediocrity has never been so stable.

**7. Las Vegas (proj. 6-8) — Off: 4th | Def: 7th**
Two years removed from the miracle, the regression the Model forecast has fully arrived. The offense still sparkles; the roster around it is a farewell tour.

**8. Green Bay (proj. 6-8) — Off: 6th | Def: 8th**
New K-Gun, same questions. Bruce Williams anchors a line worth watching; the rest is a work in progress.

**9. Atlanta (proj. 5-9) — Off: 5th | Def: 9th**
A new West Coast/3-4 identity and a top-5 offense on paper — the Model sees the defense as the anchor dragging an otherwise frisky roster.

**10. Washington (proj. 3-11) — Off: 10th | Def: 11th**
Read it again: **tenth.** After two straight winless seasons, the league's most radical rebuild is officially off the ocean floor. The young defense has teeth now — a second-year pass rusher coming off a real rookie campaign, a linebacker corps grading near the top tier, and a secondary deeper than anyone's. The line is still the league's project. But for the first time in three years, Washington enters a season with more teams below it than above the basement trapdoor.

**11. Houston (proj. 2-12) — Off: 9th | Def: 10th**
Year two of the teardown, right on schedule, which is to say: bad on purpose.

**12. Minnesota (proj. 1-13) — Off: 11th | Def: 12th**
The bleakest projection the Model has ever printed. The good news is the draft order. That's the news.

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## Unit Superlatives

- **Best offense:** Cincinnati | **Best defense:** Baltimore (87.7 — top unit grade in the league)
- **Best QB play:** Cincinnati | **Best receivers:** Baltimore | **Best offensive line:** Las Vegas
- **Best defensive line:** Pittsburgh | **Best linebackers:** Baltimore | **Best secondary:** Cincinnati
- **Scheme watch:** LA's 4-6 experiment, Green Bay's K-Gun conversion, Atlanta's West Coast/3-4 rebrand
- **Division of Death, Year 3:** the Central — the top two teams in the league, plus the fallen champs' successor state
- **Projected playoff field:** Baltimore, Buffalo, Los Angeles + Cincinnati as the wildcard

*Projections generated on finalized rosters with optimal lineups; grades are scheme-adjusted unit talent. The Model's season projections carry a ~1.5-win historical average error, and last year beat it. Las Vegas has stopped framing things.*